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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers improving in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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