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Only two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible in which election day went somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, renters and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president previously went for the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he does so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. However no, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in America could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.