A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
