From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”