Everyday Homicides in Mexico Decline 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Figures

The typical number of everyday homicides per month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent administrative statistics. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide data could fail to signal enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This information was provided by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is very significant,” the President said, noting that the previous month the smallest number of murders were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s heavily military operations to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the US. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her public safety approach for an ostensibly sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central pillars of the President's security strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative work.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety analysts cautioned that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is especially true in light of the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to properly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of daily killings was similarly concerning because it might hide periods when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Employing the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

However despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time after, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to show their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly problematic,” the analyst said.